Around October 13, a tropical wave began its passage across the tropical Atlantic. The system moved quite quickly westward and reached the Windward Islands on October 19. The vigorous disturbance produced widespread heavy rainfall during its passage into the eastern Caribbean, but its high forward speed prevented a closed circulation from forming. A little farther west, the system's forward speed slowed abruptly and it was able to become more organized. It was named Tropical Storm Melissa during the morning of October 21.
Melissa's evolution was difficult to forecast. On the one hand, the cyclone sat over a deep area of very warm water and had plenty of moisture to work with in the atmosphere. On the other, it was constantly beset by strong shear out of the west. As a result, Melissa continually developed areas of extremely strong thunderstorms which were consistently displaced east of the center. Oftentimes the low-level circulation of Melissa outpaced the convective mass, but this swirl would dissipate as the center reformed farther east. At the same time, due to Melissa being wedged between two mid-level ridges, steering currents were very weak and the cyclone did little more than meander for days. Overall it made a little progress north and west between its naming and October 24. Though the system remained away from land, rain on the outskirts of the storm caused torrential rains over portions of Hispaniola.
Around that time, though, wind shear began to gradually diminish and the system's structure changed. Organized outer bands developed and a central dense overcast appeared on the 25th. After these elements were in place, rapid intensification began. Melissa reached hurricane strength that afternoon and major hurricane strength just 9 hours afterward. By that time, an eye began to clear out. On October 26, the storm briefly paused deepening at category 4. Meanwhile, it had assumed a slow westward track, pushed by a weak mid-level ridge to the north. It tracked south of Jamaica and tropical storm conditions occurred along the southern coast of the island in outer bands.
Early on October 27, Melissa's satellite presentation became even more symmetric and the area of extremely intense thunderstorms around the eyewall grew, extending even higher into the atmosphere. This prompted an upgrade to category 5 intensity. Melissa was the third category 5 of the season after Erin and Humberto. This made 2025 only the second season on record with three or more category 5 hurricanes, after 2005, which featured four.
Over the next day, an approaching trough over eastern North America eroded the ridge that was steering Melissa and began to pull the cyclone, causing it to turn toward the north-northeast. This set it on a path toward Jamaica. It was, meanwhile, moving over some of the highest ocean heat content waters in the world. Though already a category 5, Melissa continued strengthening, avoiding the usual fluctuations in intensity that arise from eyewall replacement cycles common to powerful cyclones. During the morning of October 28, a few hours before Melissa's center made landfall in western Jamaica, the hurricane reached its extreme peak intensity. At its peak, the storm had estimated sustained winds of 185 mph and a minimum central pressure of 892 mb. It made landfall at this peak soon after.
Melissa's strength set a number of records. The 892 mb mark tied the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 for most intense at landfall by minimum pressure in a recorded Atlantic huricane. This same pressure mark tied for third lowest ever recorded in an Atlantic hurricane, behind only Gilbert of 1988 and Wilma of 2005. The winds of 185 mph tied with several other hurricanes for second highest recorded in the Atlantic, behind only Allen of 1980. The wind damage wrought by the storm was catastrophic in western Jamiaca where the center passed through. The mountainous terrain did disupt Melissa enough to weaken it to a category 3 hurricane by the time it emerged back over water early that evening.
The storm had a brief resurgence in strength late on the 28th as a large eye redeveloped on satellite, and it was upgraded back to a category 4. Soon after that, though, wind shear out of the southwest began to disrupt Melissa's core again, and it weakened back to a category 3 at landfall in eastern Cuba in the early morning hours of October 29. The system continually accelerated northeastward, crossing quickly into the Atlantic and passing among the southeastern Bahamas as a category 1 that afternoon. Despite some shear, it managed to intensify slightly again over the western Atlantic to category 2 strength. The remaining core convection became displaced from the center on October 30, but Melissa was still a formidable cyclone as it rocketed by just west of Bermuda that evening.
Melissa transitioned to a post-tropical system during the morning of October 31. That night, the storm passed just east of Newfoundland, still packing hurricane-force winds. Ex-Melissa continued northeastward over the northern Atlantic until it merged with another low.
The image above shows Melissa at peak intensity just before its record landfall in Jamaica during the morning of October 28.
The hot waters of the southwest Caribbean sea allowed Melissa to become one of the most powerful hurricanes in recorded history. The storm's most devastating impacts were in western Jamaica, but it also caused damage in Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
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