Sunday, December 9, 2018

2018 Season Summary

The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season had above-average activity, with a total of

16 cyclones attaining tropical depression status,
15 cyclones attaining tropical storm status,
8 cyclones attaining hurricane status, and
2 cyclones attaining major hurricane status.

Before the beginning of the season, I predicted that there would be

18 cyclones attaining tropical depression status,
16 cyclones attaining tropical storm status,
8 cyclones attaining hurricane status, and
4 cyclones attaining major hurricane status.

The average number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes for an Atlantic hurricane season (over the 30-year period 1981-2010) are 12.1, 6.4, and 2.7, respectively. The 2018 season was somewhat above average in these categories, with the exception of the number of major hurricanes. The formation of many short-lived subtropical storms inflated the named storm total, but the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value of 127 for the season was still above average. This value accounts for the duration and intensity of tropical cyclones as well as their number.

As usual, the ENSO oscillation was a major player in tropical cyclone activity this year. As hurricane season progressed into autumn, ocean temperatures of the equatorial Pacific trended higher than normal, signaling the advent of an El Niño event. Typically, such an event causes higher wind shear over the Atlantic and suppresses tropical cyclone activity, but it arose later in the year than anticipated, mitigating its effects.



The increase in wind shear during El Niño is most pronounced in the Caribbean Sea. Indeed, this region was a "graveyard" for tropical cyclones during 2018, as indicated by the above map of all the season's tracks. Every storm that entered the eastern Caribbean dissipated shortly thereafter due to unfavorable atmospheric winds. Ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean were also fairly cool for much of the season. This setup prevented long-track hurricanes from forming, with one notable exception: Hurricane Florence. Florence took a highly unusual route farther north but still pushed westward into the U.S. east coast. Overall, my predictions were slightly higher than the actual season activity, but they did correctly indicate the risk to the east coast.

The two most notable storms of the season were Hurricane Florence and Hurricane Michael. Florence made landfall in North Carolina, where it stalled and brought over 30 inches of rain to some areas. The record-breaking rainfall caused unprecedented flooding and extensive damage. Michael brought torrential rain to central America as it was forming and then went on to strengthen right up until landfall in the Florida Panhandle. With a pressure of 919 mb at landfall, Michael was at the time the 3rd most intense cyclone ever to make landfall in the United States. Some other notable facts and records from the 2018 Atlantic season include:
  • The 2018 season had seven storms that were at some point subtropical, a new record
  • On September 12, Florence, Helene, Isaac, and Joyce all coexisted in the Atlantic. This was the first time four named storms existed simultaneously since 2008
  • Hurricane Leslie took a highly unusual track over the far eastern Atlantic near the end of its lifetime. As a result, the first tropical storm warning on record was issued for Madeira Island southwest of Portugal; Leslie became post-tropical just before landfalling in Portugal itself
Overall, the 2018 season was only a little above average but nevertheless featured two devastating major hurricanes.

Sources: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf,