11 cyclones attaining tropical depression status,
10 cyclones attaining tropical storm status,
5 cyclones attaining hurricane status, and
2 cyclones attaining major hurricane status.
These predictions are below the 1991-2020 averages of 14.4 tropical storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes each season. The forecast this year is dominated by the expectation of a strong El Niño event. An El Niño is characterized by a positive sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. This phenomenon has a name due to its significant correlation with weather patterns around the globe, including tropical cyclone activity. Past El Niño events have corresponded to less active Atlantic hurricane seasons. The signal for a developing El Niño this year is already quite strong:
The chart above shows SST anomalies in four different parts of the equatorial Pacific over the last year. After a string of moderately negative anomalies in the winter, temperatures have rapidly increased over the last couple of months. Models indicate that this increase should continue into the autumn:
The bars indicate the probabilities of various strength El Niño events for upcoming three-month periods, initialized in May 2026. It's quite plausible that composite anomalies will exceed 2 degrees Celsius late in the Fall. Even if they don't reach this mark, it is quite likely that this will be the strongest El Niño in over a decade, since the fall and winter of 2015-2016. All this should add up to a significant suppressing effect on cyclone acitivity.
Moving on to a couple other indicators, we can look at something closer to home: ocean temperatures in the Atlantic itself.
The figure above shows simulated data for the coming August, specifically zonal wind anomalies at the 250mb level of the atmosphere, which is roughly 34,000 feet (or a little over 10km) in height. "Zonal" wind refers to the component of wind in the east-west direction, and the dominant red color indicates higher than normal such winds. Usually, strong horizontal winds in the upper atmosphere mean that the difference in the wind vector between the lower and upper atmosphere (wind shear) is more pronounced. This in turn is disruptive to forming cyclones because it makes it harder for a vortex to "stack" vertically. This is an expected byproduct of an El Niño event, but the effect is notably strong.
All this put together suggests a below average hurricane season. My forecast of 10 named storms would be the lowest since the 2014 season. Next, I'll give a finer analysis of the risks by region. My estimates are on a scale from 1 (least risk) to 5 (most risk).
U.S. East Coast and Atlantic Canada: 2
During an El Niño season, the persistent Bermuda-Azores high pressure system over the subtropical eastern Atlantic is typically weaker than normal, giving the hurricanes that do develop an "escape hatch" out to sea before they reach land. Combined with the smaller than expected number of storms overall, this should decrease the risk to the eastern seaboard this season.
Yucatan Peninsula and Central America: 2
The southwest Caribbean should be fairly warm, and carries the potential for some systems to develop and immediately effect nearby landmasses. However, an unfavorable atmosphere will likely curb cyclone development, and the fact that the Pacific hurricane season is likely to be active means that Pacific storms might interfere with the spinning up of Atlantic ones.
Carribean Islands: 2
El Niño events are usually warm and dry in the Caribbean, and wind shear will be an obstacle to hurricanes reaching the islands intact. Nevertheless, I expect a few struggling storms to make it to the eastern islands, with the potential for a stronger one to sneak through before going out to sea if shear temporarily relaxes.
Gulf of Mexico: 1
The Gulf should be quiet this year. Most storms will curve east rather than taking the traditional west-northwest track. Further, some of the highest expected zonal wind anomalies are over the Gulf region. I expect an early end to hurricane season in this region.
Overall, I expect the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season to be below average. Nevertheless, this is just an amateur forecast. Individuals in hurricane-prone areas should always have emergency measures in place. For more on hurricane safety sources, see here. Remember, devastating storms can occur even in otherwise quiet seasons.
Sources: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/644d2a771dff44fb826a2ee4f9c5b936, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/, https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/05/whats-a-super-el-nino-and-other-el-nino-questions-answered/
