Storm Active: October 11-15
On October 10, a disturbance belonging to the same large area of vorticity as the remnants of Hurricane Julia entered the Bay of Campeche. It found a pocket of favorable conditions for development and organized rather quickly over the next day. A large area of convection blossomed near the nascent center of circulation on the 11th and the system was classified Tropical Storm Karl. At the time of naming, the storm was drifting northeastward under weak steering currents, but was far enough from any coastline that it was not impacting land at the moment.
Karl had marginally favorable conditions over the following day and strengthened some, reaching peak winds of 60 mph on October 12. Late that day, a few things changed: first, an area of high pressure moved in over the areas of Mexico west of Karl, setting up an anti-cyclonic steering flow. Since Karl was on the eastern side of that flow, it made a sharp turn and began to move generally southeastward. Second, stronger upper-level winds began to encroach from the northwest, bringing dry air with them. As a result, both the tropical storm and thunderstorm activity were pushed southeastward, and Karl fluctuated in intensity over the next few days as convection was stripped away from the center and then reformed.
By October 14, steady weakening was occurring as the center approached the coast of Mexico along the southern Bay of Campeche. Most of Karl's moisture had been pushed over land, and was causing heavy rain there. The system weakened to a tropical depression as shear overwhelmed it and it became post-tropical early on the 15th just before official landfall in Mexico.
The image above shows Tropical Storm Karl on October 12. Already, the effect of upper-level winds is evident: Karl's center is nearly exposed on the northwest side.
Karl meandered around the Bay of Campeche during its time as a tropical cyclone; impacts were primarily confined to heavy rains along the regions of Mexico south and east of the storm track.
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