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Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Tropical Storm Sebastien (2019)

Storm Active: November 19-24

Around November 15, a trough of low pressure formed over the central Atlantic, generating a diffuse area of shower activity well to the east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles. The system moved steadily northwestward over the next few days and developed a weak low pressure center on November 17. Convective activity concentrated some near the center soon after, though upper-level winds and dry air out of the west confined most thunderstorm activity to the disturbance’s eastern side. During the morning of November 19, satellite data indicated a closed circulation was present and the low was upgraded to Tropical Storm Sebastien.

The next day, the cyclone turned northward as it rounded the edge of a subtropical ridge and began to feel the influence of an approaching front from the west. Sebastien faced heavy shear but still managed to strengthen some due to favorable upper-level divergence. That day, it continued its turn to the northeast, accelerating some as it did so. Convection was rather disorganized, but the system maintained its identity as it moved ahead of the advancing frontal boundary.

By November 22, Sebastien was beginning to exhibit some extratropical characteristics, but its inner core was still clearly that of a tropical system as it sped up even further. Under the cyclone, ocean heat content rapidly diminished, but it did not weaken, and in fact reached its peak intensity of 65 mph winds and a pressure of 994 mb the next day. Sebastien was already bringing heavy surf and high winds to the Azores by this time, and it rocketed across the westernmost islands during the evening of November 24. At last, its quick forward speed, coupled with cold ocean waters and frontal interaction, caused the storm to fully transition to extratropical later that night. The remnants of Sebastien merged with another system near Ireland a little over a day later.

The above image shows Tropical Storm Sebastien on November 24 shortly before extratropical transition.
The track and evolution of Sebastien were not well anticipated by computer models. While the general recurvature was agreed upon, initial model runs did not indicate Sebastien would remain tropical for as long as it did, nor that it would be able to maintain strong tropical storm intensity.

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