Around the beginning of November, a broad area of low pressure formed in the southwestern Caribbean, a typical occurrence for that time of year. The disturbance gradually consolidated over the following few days and a closed center appeared on satellite imagery on November 3. On the 4th, enough convection had developed near the center for the system to be designated Tropical Depression Eighteen. Favorable conditions allowed it to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rafael later the same day.
Rafael turned northwest and passed just west of Jamaica during the morning of November 5. Steady intensification continued as the storm's organization increased, but it was kept in check by some dry air entering the circulation from the north. That night, Rafael managed to build a more complete eyewall and strengthen more rapidly. It reached hurricane status while passing the Cayman Islands. An eye cleared out occasionally on satellite the next morning, and Rafael peaked as a major hurricane early in the afternoon with winds of 115 mph and a central pressure of 956 mb. Very soon after, the hurricane made landfall in western Cuba.
Passage over land weakened the storm a little, but it soon entered the Gulf of Mexico as a category 2. Ocean temperatures remained very warm in the Gulf and Rafael made a comeback on November 7 when its eye made another appeareance and deep convection surrounded the center. That night, the hurricane reached its overall peak intensity of 120 mph winds, also matching its previous minimum pressure of 956 mb. This also matched the record for strongest winds recorded in a November hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that was set by Hurricane Kate in 1985.
A developing ridge turned the hurricane west across the Gulf, where it soon encountered moderate wind shear and an extremely dry air mass. Though the storm had plenty of ocean heat content to work with, dry air steadily devoured Rafael and it weakened quickly from that point. By the evening of the 8th, it was a tropical storm. The storm slowed down and began a tight clockwise loop as it continued weakening. Rafael became a remnant low on November 10. The low dissipated soon afterwards.
The image above shows Rafael near peak intensity in the Gulf of Mexico.
Rafael had a destructive landfall as a category 3 in Cuba before moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Unusually (and fortunately), the storm dissipated over the Gulf rather than making any further landfall.
